Monday, December 26, 2005

Nepal-Brink of civil war?

When my friend Siresongs was in Nepal, I used to get first hand information on Nepal. Now I had to rely on the TV channels and news paper. There was recently two items in Newspaper that caught my eye. First was the decline of an offer for Talks from the Maoists and second was the purchase of lethal ammunitions from China. So is the King really on to something? Declining the peace offer (or attempts to make peace) from the Maoists looks like a brave attempt on the face of it but it has a lot of underlying statements. Reading together the purchase of armaments from China, signals a notable shift of equations with India, Nepal’s traditional ally. If the king had accepted the offer, he would have to revert to democratic means and less military means. As with every dictatorship, military is his first and last straw. Fear is the weapon. Suppression is the way. So anything that remotely resembles democracy, the King will weaken his grip on the Himalayan kingdom. And this would give the ideal opportunity to the political fraternity. Once a people backed rising started, his military might may not be able to contain it. So this may be the reason behind his refusal.
India and US, the traditional arms supplier to the kingdom, has stopped their supplies since the royal coup. India has asserted that it will be a temporary stay, fearing that Pakistan will scoop up the opportunity, and resumed limited supply later but that was not enough to keep China at bay. New Delhi must be ruing the lost goldmine.
Still a large chink of Nepal, Rural areas especially, are controlled by the Maoists. King Gyanendra is losing control everyday steadily. Clamp down on media and arresting leading politicians accelerated his dropping popularity. On international front, pressure is mounting to bring back democracy and law and order. It is to be seen how the wily king cop with the pressure and hold on to power.


Nepali_Guy said...

Nepal is made for Kingship. You indians stop talking about Nepal. You people never wanted development in Nepal. You only want nepalese as bahadurs in your homes.Maosit are all your gift to nepal. Infact India is the biggest terrorist Country In World after America

Shinu Mathew said...

Dear Nepali Guy,
I respect your feelings for your motherland. But seeing your blog title I thought you are all for DEmocracy!
Let me correct you about one thing though. India never exports terrorism. We are at the receiving end of it.
What happens in Nepal is beyond comprehension for any ordinary person. The monarch has distroyed the development in Nepal. Infact as your title suggests everyone should unite for a democratic nepal.
We love nepalese. We have a regiment in our army for nepalese and we see them romantically. The brave men of Nepal.

Sirensongs: Indologist At Large said...

When I was in Nepal ( I miss it!) I was very surprised to hear views such as NepaliGuy's. Of course I welcome hearing other viewpoints and take them into consideration, but it was a surprise to me to hear India being painted as being behind the Maoists. We have our own Communist problem here (Naxalites, who recently had a solidarity agreement with the Nepali M's) and the last thing, it would seem, India would want to do is promote Maoism intentionally. Plus we have a mutual threat in the form of China. It seemed to me during my visit that the Nepali people really love their king and the institution of monarchy, but now feel used and cheated by him with his recent moves. It seemed most of them would like the restoration of democracy as well as participation of the monarchy. Of course these are just my perceptions as a vistor. It seems considering all their mutual interests (generally pro-Hindu, definitely anti-China) that India and Nepal could cooperate.